Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

Testing variability in pathogenicity of Phytophthora cinnamomi

Forty eight isolates of Phytophthora cinnamomi from various host plants in France (35 isolates) and in other countries were tested for pathogenicity. Seedlings of chestnut, northern red oak, pine and eucalyptus were infected by soil contamination. Taproots, stems and bark strips of plants of chestnut and different oak species were inoculated with mycelium agar disks. Results of the different experiments were in good agreement. All isolates appeared pathogenic to all the different test species but with variable levels of virulence. Isolates with consistent low or high level of virulence, which could be used as standards in further studies, were identified. Interaction between P. cinnamomi isolates and host plant species was significant in terms of lesion lengths. These interactions could not be related to host from which P. cinnamomi was isolated. Consistent with this, in Quercus rubra, the isolate-provenance interaction was not significant. This feature is encouraging for provenance screening for resistance to P. cinnamomi in this species. The variation in virulence was not related to other isolate characteristics (mating type, electrophoretic type, age).     

Application of sperm cryopreservation in selective breeding of the Pacific oyster,Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg)

The robustness of Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg), sperm cryopreservation in the context of selective breeding based on family lines was investigated. Irrespective of egg density, high fertilization success was achieved with cryopreserved sperm when sperm:egg ratios of 1000:1 to 10 000:1 were used. Variation among replicate runs on the same oyster batches was minimal, indicating that cryopreservation and larval rearing procedures were repeatable. Twenty independent single male–female crosses were made to assess the utility of cryopreserved sperm in selective breeding. The fertility of unfrozen sperm was generally a poor predictor of cryopreserved sperm fertility. Based on D‐larval yields, 17 of the 20 crosses were likely to yield adequate spat for selective breeding (>10⁵ D‐larvae from 1 million eggs), two were marginal (5 × 10⁴ D‐larvae) and one was inadequate (4 × 10³ D‐larvae). An alternative fertilization strategy to improve D‐yield from a given number of sperm was then tested. Fertilizing 10 million eggs at a sperm:egg ratio of 200:1 increased the total D‐yield when compared with fertilizing 1 million eggs at a sperm:egg ratio of 2000:1 for the same male–female pair. We conclude that, despite wide variation in fertility, cryopreserved sperm is useful for family production.     

Trunk inoculations of Phytophthora cinnamomi in red oaks

Trunks of northern red oaks were inoculated with Phytophthora cinnamomi. To study lesion growth in bark tissues over several years, lesion assessment methods were perfected and tested. Koch's postulates were demonstrated. Development and longevity of lesions were studied. Intra-specific variability of red oak susceptibility was investigated.     

Influence of nursery soil amendments on water relations,root architectural development,and field performance of Douglas-fir transplants

This experiment evaluated the influence of manure, peat, and vermiculite incorporated at low and high rates (0.0118 and 0.0236 m³/m²) and under two soil moisture regimes on Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedling (1+0 for 1+1) xylem water potential (_xylem), whole-plant growth, root architectural development, and subsequent field performance under fertilized and non-fertilized conditions. Trends in soil moisture retention were observed (high manure > high peat > control) but there were no differences in _xylem. Root length in the wetter soil moisture experiment was initially (three months) greatest for seedlings in high vermiculite and least in high manure but there were no differences among treatments at lifting (eight months). Mean height was greatest for seedlings grown in vermiculite and peat (wetter nursery experiment) after two field seasons. Field fertilization (35 g/seedling) with controlled-release fertilizer in the planting hole stimulated height growth initially, but decreased height and diameter growth during the second growing season. Dramatic improvements associated with the use of nursery soil amendments were not realized, but the failure to identify negative effects, a potential reduction in disease incidence, and improvement of nursery soil physical and chemical properties may justify their use.     

Seasonal effect on infection and development of lesions caused by Cryphonectria parasitica in Castanea sativa

Seasonal variation in the development of chestnut blight, caused by Cryphonectria parasitica, was investigated by inoculating in situ chestnut trees and in vitro excised chestnut segments, at either monthly or 3‐monthly intervals throughout 30 months. Inoculations were made with conidia and mycelium of a virulent isolate and with mycelium of a hypovirulent isolate. Conidial inoculations of living sprouts or excised segments between May and July resulted in the greatest incidence of infection whereas inoculations in autumn and winter, in vitro as well as in situ, did not reveal any visible disease. However, from these symptomless inoculated stems, C. parasitica was isolated 3 months after inoculation. Inoculations with the mycelium of the virulent isolate always resulted in lesions, except in January 1999, and the greatest rate of lesion development occurred for inoculations made in the spring and summer. There was a significant seasonal effect on lesion development. Lesions caused by the hypovirulent isolate, smaller than those caused by the virulent isolate, followed a similar seasonal pattern. The same seasonal variations were observed for inoculations in vitro of excised segments. Relative water content (RWC) of chestnut bark significantly varied with bark sampling date. The rate of lesion development in sprouts significantly correlated with average minimum (ATn) and maximum (ATx) temperatures and the sum of rainfall during inoculation period, with the rate of lesion development measured in excised segments 10 days after inoculation (R10d) and with RWC measured on the day of inoculation. In multiple regression models, variables ATx and R10d best explained variation in lesion development.     

Use of pyrethroid analogues to identify key structural features for enhanced esterase resistance in Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

It has been reported previously that the major resistance mechanism to pyrethroid insecticides by the cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) in Australia is a consequence of overproduction of esterase isoenzymes. This paper reports structure-activity relationships that support such a view, based on in vivo bioassays conducted with a range of pyrethroid structures containing a variety of acid and alcohol moieties and the correlation with in vitro esterase inhibition assays against the same structures, and identifies the critical regions of the molecule with regard to esterase inhibition, and hence resistance. The implications of this work in terms of possible resistance management are evaluated and discussed.